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If you saw a horse following Z pattern in its last performance, i.e. started fine, then lost from the but gained at the last, will most likely go for big run this.
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You want one or two horses that are highly desired. the professional handicappers will have comments "like this is the one to beat" or "will remain in the money for sure today" anything along wrinkles. Especially if you have more than one sources favoring and talking up a particular horse.